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The big era for the development of medical heath is approaching
【Date：2015.10.27 Source：】The big era for the development of medical heath is approaching
According to statistics, the proportion of those more than 65 years old in the population pyramid of China tends to increase from 1950 to 2050. In the year of 1950, the proportion was only 4.9%, which rose to 21.5% in 2007. By 2050, the proportion is expected to as high as 39.6%.
We are confronted with population aging, various civilization disease and increasing chronic disease. The demand for the upgrade of medical resources during urbanization expands. The irrational phenomenon like the difficulties and high expense in medical treatment provides the foundation for the growth of private hospital. Under the influence of various and complicated factors, the growth of medical health industry will be comprehensively promoted.
After the analysis with regard to policy, demand, market value, estimated value and investment, it is believed that the long-term investment value of medical health industry is quite obvious. As for the growth rate of the industry, its annual operating revenue will grow as much as 20% in the following years and its profit growth rate, 30%. If the high growth rate continues, the market can afford the estimated value as much as 37 times of current price/earnings rate.
For quite a long time, people would have good prospects for medical health industry that is regarded as a theme and sector. We believe there are mainly four sectors in medical health industry, i.e. drug manufacturing, medical service, circulation of drugs and medical instruments, among which we will focus on medical service and instrument.
There are bright prospects for medical service and instruments.
There is considerable demand for medical treatment and examination brought about by chronic disease. The fee of drugs becomes the focus of medical treatment reform. Hospitals intend to increase their revenues by actively procuring medical treatment and examination devices. Besides, medical devices tend to be advanced and various innovations like smart medical device and wearable device, occurs one after another, which contain a great number of investment opportunities.
In the medical service market, private hospital and outsourcing service enjoy strong growth momentum, the modern chain operation of private hospital in particular. In our view, the aggregate scale of Chinese health service industry is up to 1.65 trillion RMB, among which non-public hospital service accounts for less than 10%. It has been declared by the State Council that the aggregate scale of health service industry would exceed 8 trillion RMB by 2020, in which the beds and service volume of non-public hospital should make up for 20%.
At present, the mergers and acquisitions in the market are quite popular. Last year, the turnover of medical listed companies had surpassed 20 billion RMB. There are more than 30 listed companies suspended because of merger and acquisition in the last year. The continuous mergers and acquisitions are beneficial to medical listed companies and plate conditions.
From: Investment Express
